Full technical and fundamental analysis of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), with a probability assessment of a 100% return by December 3, 2026. Verdict: ~15%.
The base-rate math (lognormal with 6-month realized vol of 85%) gives a 21% raw probability of doubling. Adjusting for negative realized skew (-1.33), downward drift, dilution risk, and the absence of an announced hyperscaler contract pulls the estimate down to the mid-teens. A doubling requires a binary catalyst — most likely a major hyperscaler SMR commitment — that has not yet been telegraphed by counterparties. Probability is real, not negligible, but asymmetric and largely tail-driven.
NYSE: SMR · Portland, OR · Small Modular Reactor developer · 330 employees
NuScale Power Corporation is the only U.S. public pure-play small modular reactor company. The company designs and licenses modular light water reactors — flagship product is the 77 MWe NuScale Power Module (NPM), deployed in clusters as 4-, 6-, or 12-module plants branded VOYGR. In May 2025, the NRC issued standard design approval for the 77 MWe module, making NuScale the only Western SMR designer with full U.S. regulatory certification. The company went public via SPAC merger in March 2022 and is majority-owned by Fluor Enterprises.
127 trading sessions · Dec 2025 → Jun 2026 · 6-month window
| Date | Firm | Analyst | Rating | Target | Implied vs Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Citigroup | Vikram Bagri | Sell | $7.00 | -43% |
| 2026-04-24 | B. Riley | Ryan Pfingst | Buy | $19.00 | +55% |
| 2026-04-23 | HSBC | Samantha Hoh | Hold | $13.00 | +6% |
| 2026-04-21 | Citigroup | Vikram Bagri | Sell | $9.00 | -27% |
| 2026-03-18 | UBS | Jon Windham | Neutral | $13.00 | +6% |
| 2026-03-02 | Goldman Sachs | Brian Lee | Neutral | $14.00 | +14% |
| 2026-03-02 | RBC Capital | Christopher Dendrinos | Sector Perform | $14.00 | +14% |
| 2026-02-27 | Canaccord | George Gianarikas | Buy | $25.00 | +104% |
| 2026-02-24 | Barclays | Christine Cho | Equal-Weight | $15.00 | +22% |
| 2026-02-24 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Derek Soderberg | Overweight | $20.00 | +63% |
Distribution: 6 Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell. Median target $17.00 (51% upside), but no covering firm has a target at or above the $24.54 doubling level. The $25 Canaccord target is the closest. Citigroup at $7 implies a 43% downside and represents the bear consensus. Goldman Sachs cut to $9 on June 3, 2026 (below current price) — a strong short-term negative signal.
FY2025 reported · Q1 2026 most recent quarter
| Year | Revenue | Op Income | Net Income | EPS | Op Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $31.5M | -$689.6M | -$355.8M | -$2.17 | -2,190% |
| 2024 | $37.0M | -$138.7M | -$136.6M | -$1.47 | -374% |
| 2023 | $22.8M | -$275.6M | -$58.4M | -$0.80 | -1,208% |
| 2022 | $11.8M | -$230.0M | -$57.1M | -$0.51 | -1,948% |
Revenue is rounding-error. $31.5M on a $3.66B market cap is a price-to-sales ratio near 116×. The 2025 operating loss of -$690M includes a substantial Q3 2025 impairment charge (operating loss of -$538M in that quarter alone vs. -$35-72M in surrounding quarters). Even excluding the impairment, normalized operating loss is ~-$200M annually — burning ~6% of cash per quarter.
| Date | Cash & Equiv. | Total Debt | Total Equity | Current Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $836.4M | $0 | $1,168.8M | 4.30 |
| 2024-12-31 | $401.6M | $0 | $618.7M | 5.25 |
| 2023-12-31 | $120.3M | $2.9M | $93.5M | 1.77 |
Cash more than doubled YoY because of an at-the-market equity issuance in September 2025 that diluted existing holders. Cash is real, but it is the result of selling stock at distressed prices. Zero debt is genuinely positive — no covenant pressure and no interest expense. Current ratio of 4.3 is healthy on a liquidity basis, but does not address the runway question.
At a ~$230M annualized cash burn, current cash runs out by approximately Q3 2027. The company will need to raise additional capital before then, almost certainly through further equity issuance. Each $200M raised at $12.27 issues ~16.3M new shares — ~11% dilution to existing holders. The market is pricing this probability in, which is part of why the stock trades at a steep discount to the implied commercial value of the NRC-approved design.
Forward calendar of dated events and known inflection points
The Q2 2026 earnings (Aug 6) is the next hard date. The market is looking for: (1) updated revenue guidance from ENTRA1/TVA pipeline, (2) any new hyperscaler MoU, (3) cash burn trajectory and timing of next equity raise. A clean beat with hyperscaler announcement could spark a 30-60% single-day move. A miss with confirmed dilution could trigger a retest of $9.66 support.
Three scenarios with conditional probabilities and required catalysts
At current setup, organic operational progress (ENTRA1 milestones, NRC COLs, modest cash burn improvement) gets the stock to $17-20, not $24.54. Reaching $24.54 requires the stock to price in a step-change in commercial outlook — not incremental execution, but a new tier of demand that reframes the equity story. This is the structural reason the doubling probability is tail-driven rather than drift-driven.
Four independent methods, weighted to a central estimate
Under a geometric Brownian motion assumption with no drift, the probability of a 100%
gain in 6 months depends on the realized volatility. SMR's 6-month realized σ is
85.1% (annualized 120%). Z-score for a 100% return:
ln(2) / 0.851 = 0.815, corresponding to a one-tailed normal probability of
~21%.
Adjusting for SMR's actual negative drift over the trailing 6 months
(-32% return, ~-64% annualized) raises the Z-score to
(ln(2) + 0.32) / 0.851 = 1.19, dropping the probability to
~12%. This is the most direct way to fold in the current
fundamental trajectory.
SMR's realized return distribution is negatively skewed (skew = -1.33) with excess kurtosis of 10.4. Negative skew means the distribution of large moves is biased to the downside — large crashes are more frequent than equally large rallies. This is empirically typical of a stock in a downtrend. Adjusting for skew pulls the lognormal estimate down further, toward ~10%.
Doubling requires a step-change catalyst. The most plausible binary events in the 6-month window:
Central estimate: ~15%. Plausible range: 8% to 22%. The lower bound assumes dilution is announced within 2-3 months and no contract materializes. The upper bound assumes an upside catalyst hits in the next 60-90 days while realized vol stays elevated. Both tails are reasonable.
Equivalent long-shot odds: ~6.5-to-1 against doubling. This is not a moonshot, but it is also not a coin flip. Position sizing should reflect that an 85% loss-of-most-of-premium outcome is the more likely path.
If speculating on the doubling: size as a tail-position (≤2-3% of total portfolio) consistent with binary-event allocation. The trade is essentially: pay $X to win ~6-7× if a contract lands within 6 months. Implied breakeven on a 6-month $24 call would be priced in the $0.80-$1.20 range given 85% realized vol — verifying against current options pricing would tighten the estimate.
If you would not size speculatively: the same data says the expected value of a long position is negative. The bear scenario (cash raise at $7-9) is more likely than the bull scenario, and the downside is realized with high probability. A short or put-spread thesis is the asymmetric trade here, not a long position.